Cyclone Debbie: Modelling points to nightmare scenario

WEATHER modelling from the Bureau of Meteorology currently points to a nightmare scenario which could see up to 300mm of rain fall on the area around Hamilton Island and Airlie Beach, in just six hours.

The raw modelling data, which can be viewed on the BOM's website, indicates Tropical Cyclone Debbie is liable to create what weather forecasters call a convergence band.

"It's essentially where the cyclone crosses the coast and then part of it turns back in on itself," a BOM forecaster explained.

Under this scenario the area where the cyclone impacted by the cyclone is likely to see heavy constant rain throughout Monday evening and all of Tuesday then the area south of were the eye makes landfall cops a serious bucketing after the system has moved inland.

The purple area on the map below indicates where weather modelling says this is likely to occur. 

The Bureau’s raw weather modelling is presently forecasting phenomenally heavy rainfall for Hamilton Island and Airlie Beach after the system crosses the coast in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
The Bureau’s raw weather modelling is presently forecasting phenomenally heavy rainfall for Hamilton Island and Airlie Beach after the system crosses the coast in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

However while weather models are presently predicting this will happen around Airlie Beach the BOM has cautioned against assuming the computer programs which help create the forecasts have correctly predicted exactly where this will occur.

"The models aren't great at spotting that (a convergence band) until it happens," a BOM spokesman said.

"The worst case scenario is you get that really heavy rainfall in a few hours, that's when you can see some really big problems."

News Corp Australia

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