Global sugar deficit driving good prices
CONFIDENCE among Australia's sugar producers has soared to a near six-year high on the back of the strength of sugar prices, according to a recent survey by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
And global fundamentals remain supportive of prices being maintained in the 2016/17 season, with Rabobank's recently released Sugar Quarterly report forecasting another sizeable global sugar deficit, which is set to further run down stocks.
With the 2015/16 season marking the first global sugar deficit in five years, at a projected 7.9 million tonnes, the report forecasts a similar deficit in the 2016/17 season of 7.2 million tonnes.
It is good news for local growers, including Strathdickie's Gary Simpson.
Mr Simpson said the Proserpine industry had had a few "hiccups” with the weather this year but was positive moving into 2017.
"It's the best it has looked for years and years so you would have to be optimistic. If you can get prices of $600 a tonne that has got to be good,” he said.
"Last year's pool price was $385 (a tonne) for people that didn't lock in any pricing and it was 22.7 cents per pound this morning (Monday).
"They have been talking the Aussie dollar down for the last few years but it hasn't happened so if the dollar falls at that price there will be some good dollars to be earned.”
Commodity analyst with Rabobank Georgia Twomey said the likelihood of this substantial global deficit in 2016/17 was already priced into the market, with prices up around 50% on last year's average.
"Following the dramatic run-up in prices earlier in the year, New York #11 futures have stabilised over the past three months to trade in a fairly narrow range of USc19/lb to USc21/lb,” she said.
"Of course, sooner or later, there is likely to be a break-out from the current price range, however there is more upside than downside to the price outlook.”
Ron Worth of Wilmar's Proserpine mill said on Tuesday the 2016 crush was almost at the half way point.
"The mill has crushed a total of 818,200 tonnes, which represents about 45% of the total crop,” he said.
The mill achieved good throughput last week and average CCS levels are at a season high of 13 units.